UNRAVELLING THE TRUTH OF CHINESE TWO FRONT WAR THREAT TO BHARAT THE NEW INDIA
06 JUL 0830 h
PART III – THE TWO FRONT WAR A THREAT TO BHARAT OR A DILEMMA FOR CHINA
“Victory has hundred fathers, defeat has none.” An old saying
THE REVISED CHINESE NARRATIVE
Two Chinese Mechanised Divisions deployed at Depsang Plateau and Eastern Laddakh.
Up scaling of Chinese air assets in Tibet.
Open sightings of Chinese air force assets in POJK.
Reports of Chinese officials in close contact with Al Badr terrorist outfit.
Deployment by Pakistan of two Divisions in Gilgit-Baltistan area opposite Laddakh.
Activation of Pakistan Air Defence radars along the LC.
Deductions on a Platter
Chinese fifth columnists are shouting out loud alarm on Bharat’s unpreparedness to withstand two front war with China and Pakistan.
The message is clear, China-Pakistan combine is ready to catch Bharat in a classic military pincer.
But the messaging this time is crude and shrill, lacking the subtlety associated with a cool and well-crafted narrative by an inscrutable China. Having to openly hint at complicity with terrorist organisations like Al Badr, reflects bankruptcy of thought and paucity of options available to China
Pakistan’s showcased deployments are defensive in nature and more in the form of an insurance against a surprise strike from an unpredictable Bharat. They have left an escape clause for themselves.
Bharat senses nervousness in Rawalpindi and unease in Beijing.
EMERGENCE OF AN ALTERNATIVE NARRATIVE
Quiet movement of mountain strike formations of Bharat from peacetime locations to its Northern borders.
Bharat representatives at Army level talks have suddenly become assertive on the disengagement process of the two armies.
Three US aircraft carrier groups have pivoted towards Taiwan and South China Sea.
Move of US Stryker Brigades, Marines and Air assets towards South East Asia has commenced.
Australian Naval assets are sighted near the South China Sea region.
Japan Naval ships conducting joint exercise with Indian Naval ships near Malacca Straits.
Unmarked aircrafts and ships flying mysterious flags arriving in Bharat with secret cargoes.
Flurry of unnamed foreign emissaries visiting Delhi for secret parleys.
Statements of unequivocal support to Bharat emerging from powerful world leaders.
Something is afoot in the corridors of South Block in New Delhi.
But the most important signal, or lack of it, being picked up is the lack of familiar chest thumping by South Block! New Delhi is suddenly and ominously silent. It confidently refuses to respond to fifth column provocateurs of China.
Bharat rolling out a subtle and yet menacing alternative narrative, hitherto a forte of China, is unnerving to Beijing.
It strikes dynamically at the most exposed fault line, the divergence of interests between Xi Jinping, the President ‘for Life’ of China and of China itself.
The only way for China to favourably resolve this contradiction is a voluntary abdication or a shortened ‘lifespan’!
Pakistan is precariously poised with growing fissiparous tendencies in Balochistan and Sindh, exposed Western borders, unstable economy, an ill equipped armed force, acute shortage of war fighting stocks, and most importantly, geopolitical waters suddenly turned opaque.
The spectre of massive outstanding loans being called in, is making Pakistan sweat. The ‘Businessmen Generals’ of Pakistan too are nervous.
DILEMMA BEFORE CHINA
Its own revised narrative has strong chinks.
Pakistan lacks offensive capabilities in the mountains, its air defense environment is weak, and a strong possibility of Pakistan collapsing under weight of internal contradictions and external geopolitical pressures could at one stroke permanently jeopardise China’s strategic investments and vital national interest of an alternative land access to Indian Ocean.
Centrifugal forces in Xinjiang and Tibet are in check only due to a strong Chinese military presence. Prolonged deployment of its troops opposite Laddakh could adversely impact its internal security situation, which may lead to domino effect in other sensitive regions.
China has already lost face in South East Asia, emboldening ASEAN countries and Philippines to start voicing opposition to unilateral Chinese actions in the region. A major reverse or even a stalemate may result in unravelling of its external security infrastructure in the South China Sea.
A menacing partnership is taking shape along Eastern maritime region of China, threatening its maritime trade lifeline.
Trade and economic sanctions are adversely impacting Chinese economy.
The geostrategic environment has become too uncertain for China to simultaneously focus on its exposed Eastern coastline, South Western borders with Bharat, internal security situation in Xinjiang and Tibet, and manage the deteriorating economic situation.
China is unable to gauge the extent and quality of external support with Bharat. Suddenly the military outcome is uncertain.
‘SHAFTING THE BULLY ON HORNS OF DILEMMA!’
PART IV follows…………….
Col RS Sidhu