Do Indians have better chances of survival from COVID 19 epidemic?

Do Indians have better chances of survival from COVID 19 epidemic?

The impact of epidemic depends on three factors: the infectivity and virulence of the agent, the suspecptibity of the host, and the environment favorability of the agent. That means simply, if the infectivity is high, it’s going to attack more people, but if the virulence is high, it will kill more people without being able to be transmitted. If the host is not susceptible to infection then also epidemic will fade or may not produce increased case fatalities. And if the environment is not conducive to viral survival then also the epidemic will fade. Let’s discuss these factors on Indian context.

1. Agent : According to a Chinese study in Peking university on 103 patients, they identified two strains of COVID 19, the original S type and L type, which is a mutated type [1] ; but their study found more of L type. It suggests that L type is more aggressive mutated form. We don’t know which type is predominant in India? But overall the infectivity of COVID 19 is pretty high with a favorable mortality profile which is actually pro-epidemic. So the agent remains same as for the rest of the world, till now.

2. Host: The host factor is very important in an epidemic. The infectivity and severity of the disease, as well the mortality are determined by immune response of the host. The COVID 19 causes more suffering in elderly and more mortality. Though the young patients are infected, they usually show mild or no symptoms. In 80% of cases symptoms are mild, 15% cases symptoms are moderate and 5% cases having severe symptoms like ARDS and overall mortality is around 2.5%. The most of the mortality is above 60 years of age with highest above 80 ( 14 % in Italy vs 10% in Wuhan) . The mortality is almost insignificant among individuals less than 20 years of age ( 0.3%) , and nil upto 9 years [2]. So age composition of a country will determine it’s mortality. A country like Italy where 22% of population are elderly (more than 65 years) the mortality is very high [3]. Whereas in India 6.4% are above 65, so naturally the mortality will be less here.

Apart from this age composition another factor is important which is immunity of the host. We have two types of immunity. The first line is Innate immunity and 2nd line is Adaptive immunity. The innate immunity does not have a memory and it is mediated by NK cells, macrophages and neutrophils. The Adaptive immunity is mediated by T and B lymphocytes and it needs a memory of a previous encounter with the pathogen. But here our Innate immunity is important as the COVID 19 is a new virus. Do we have any proof that we Indians have strong innate immunity?

An Indo- US team of researchers has found that Indians, compared to other world populations carry more NK cells that can detect and terminate infections at early stage [4]. Indians acquired the activating KIR (killer cell immunoglobulin receptor) genes as a result of natural selection to survive environmental challenges [5]. So there is some proof that we have a stronger first line defense, may be as we are exposed to more infective agents and that determine a specific microbiome inside our body. Apart from that, observation in the current epidemic is, mortality is less still in malaria endemic areas. We still don’t know the causal relationship. But studies have shown Plasmodium Falciparum requires Zinc for parasitic growth [6], and zinc also inhibits the RNA dependent RNA polymerase of COVID 19 and Chloroquine is Zinc Inophore. So, there may be an interrelationship ! But being a malaria endemic country we can breathe a sigh of relief !

There is another factor as well. A new study is recruiting health workers to evaluate effect of BCG vaccination in prevention or manifestation of COVID 19 infection [6]. BCG vaccine is given in children to modulate their immunity against tuberculosis. It actually enhances T cell mediated immunity which is a form of Adaptive immunity, but at the same time with the help of IL1 Beta it stimulates innate immunity, as well. BCG vaccination has been shown to reduce 30% of viral infections, with the help of this Innate immunity. So BCG, Tuberculosis and Innate immunity all seem to link together. We don’t know till now whether we will have another advantage, in fight against this virus, of being a Tuberculosis endemic country .

3. Environment: It is hot topic now that whether the hot climate of our country will be able to kill the virus ? We still don’t know. But let’s see the temperature and latitude of the affected countries! The ‘Global Virus Network ‘ has predicted that weather modeling can explain spread of COVID 19 [7]. Their observation is that the spread of COVID 19 is along a narrow corridor of 30-50″ N at consistently similar weather conditions of 5 to 11 degree Celsius and 47% to 79% humidity. They also suggested that a temperature rise of 12 degrees Celsius or higher, the viral transmission may be difficult. A study in China also found that that the virus transmission is best at a temperature 8.72 degree Celsius and with every 1 degree rise in minimum temperature , the total number of cases go down [8]. So what will be the fate of the virus in boiling temperature of country is a valid speculation. We didn’t have a single casualty in MERS epidemic in 2012, which was a deadly Coronavirus. We don’t know whether it was due to a proper isolation or our climate !

Amidst of fearful theories, I tried to offer you a ray of hope. But remember all these conjectures are without firm evidence. Still I believe we can win the disease with positivity. So just hold tight till mid April, maintain a lock down properly, and leave the rest to scorching sun rays.

References:

1. https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463

2. https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

3.https://www.indexmundi.com/italy/age_structure.html

4. https://www.natureasia.com/en/nindia/article/10.1038/nindia.2008.254

5. Du, Z. et al. KIR2DL5 alleles mark certain combination of activating KIR genes. Genes Immun. 9, 470-480 (2008)

6. https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/australia-bcg-vaccine-trial-covid-19/

7.https://gvn.org/enhanced-model-for-monitoring-zones-of-increased-risk-of-covid-19-spread/

8.https://www.firstpost.com/health/coronavirus-myth-busted-covid-19-cases-may-not-decline-in-warm-climate-8133671.html

Recommendations from Psychologists.

Recommendations from Psychologists.

1. Isolate yourself from news about the virus. (Everything we need to know, we already know).

2. Don’t look out for death toll. It’s not a cricket match to know the latest score. Avoid that.

3. Don’t look for additional information on the Internet, it would weaken your mental state.

4.Avoid sending fatalistic messages. Some people don’t have the same mental strength as you (Instead of helping, you could activate pathologies such as depression).

5. If possible, listen to music at home at a pleasant volume. Look for board games to entertain children, tell stories and future plans.

6. Maintain discipline in the home by washing your hands, putting up a sign or alarm for everyone in the house.

7. Your positive mood will help protect your immune system, while negative thoughts have been shown to depress your immune system and make it weak against viruses.

8. Most importantly, firmly believe that this shall also pass and we will be safe…. !

Stay positive,Stay safe.

Why Japan is normal when the entire world is shutdown?

Why Japan is normal when the entire world is shutdown?

I am continuously thinking when Japan was the first country to be impacted by Corona from China because of the luxury ship Diamond Princess from China in January by now it would have gone to stage 4 like European countries. When Japan was hit with the Virus, My parents asked me to come back to India for few months and go back once it settles.
But in Japan everything is normal till today. We were going to offices daily, we are going to all essential services. No restaurants are closed. No malls are closed. No lockdown. Metro trains moving normally. Bullet trains moving normally. All International borders are open. Also Japan has the high percentage of old people like Italy. Tokyo has highest number of foreigners living. Tokyo is one of the best tourist attraction with lot of foreigners. Foreigners are still allowed inside.
Only services stopped are schools and public events.
Am listening to all theories of breaking the chain.
Lockdown kills the chain process for the dense country like India. Tokyo is the most dense city in the world and how is it controlled. We are leading just the normal life as usual. Am Only scared when i see updates and news from India.

I analysed about it and probably it is because of the culture of Japanese people where the rules suggested to prevent Corona virus were practised by them from childhood.
1. japanese people wear masks when they travel or come out. Usually we see 60% wearing masks daily on normal days. Even they catch very little cold they wear masks. This was their culture which helped in stopping the spread and cuts the chain.
Normally any public facing person like receptionist, govt officers, doctors, nurses,station masters, train staff,police, janitors, etc wear masks daily at work. During winter we make children to wear a mask Daily so that they dont bother others when they catch cold. At home we have kodomo mask box and normal mask box. Kodomo mask is for children which fits them properly.
2. Japanese people lead a life where they dont bother others. They dont litter anything. They use dustbins only to litter or spit. Cleanliness is the part of their culture. They were taught how to be clean and public behaviour before learning alphabets in schools.
3. They dont do handshake but bow to greet.
4. Here washing hands is a part of culture. We have soaps and sanitizers in public toilets , office entrances and usually in every public space. Using sanitizers is pretty common which prevented spread of virus. I never used the sanitizers but from past 2 months am following the usage of sanitizers before entering office, using an elevator, the moment i see sanitizer try using it.
5. In restrooms i noticed that people wash their hands and also clean and wipe the sink area too to make it comfortable for the next person to use it. This is a usual practice in public metro stations too.
6. They carry wet tissue packets to clean their hands occasionally when they go out.
7. They usually maintain social distance with all

This helped Japan to prevent lockdown. This needs a lot of Sadhana. These rules were part of Japanese culture which they practice with perfection. Something to learn from Japan.

In the last 7 days

In the last 7 days:
1. March 21st ( 283 cases ) –
March 22nd ( 396 cases )
Increase by 39.92 %f

2. March 22nd ( 396 cases ) –
March 23rd ( 468 cases )
Increase by 18.18 %

3. March 23rd ( 468 cases ) –
March 24th ( 566 cases )
Increase by 23.43 %

4. March 24th ( 566 cases ) –
March 25th ( 645 cases )
Increase by 13.95 %

5. March 25th ( 645 cases ) –
March 26th ( 720 cases )
Increase by just 11.62 %

6. March 26th ( 720 cases ) –
March 27thh ( 886 cases )
Increase by just 12.30 %

7. . March 27th ( 886 cases ) –
March 28th ( 933 cases ; as of now from covid19india.org)
Increase by just 5.31 % as at 5 pm 28th March 2020.

Is Lockdown for 21 days working ?

YES!!!
It is . .

The rate of increase has declined and probably the situation is getting stable.

Please stay home and urge others to stay Home as well 🙏

lockdown

Request to all,
This lockdown as of now is till 15th April 2020 and may continue further if required.. so every resource is critical and essential.
• Kindly restrict the number of items in meals and try for zero wastage of food and water.
• Appeal to everyone
Lets not indulge in big cooking every day.
• Cook fewer items with fewer ingredients.
• Cook only those items that need less oil, less spice, less sugar and less of gas, for a start.
• Let us be thrifty.
May your stock last longer.
Its a complete total lockdown…
Lets assume to be in situation like More than a war which we have never tasted

SIMPLE STEPS TO REDUCE HOUSEWORK –

🔻Cook One pot meal. Like Khichadi, pulao, biryani etc.
🔻Eat in smaller plates
Everyone wash their own plates, spoons, cups etc.
🔻Wear smaller clothes and lighter material like shorts, T shirt. So that washing machine can be operated on alternate days.
🔻This all is to overcome disturbed Tap water & electricity supply if happened.
🔻Dinner / Snacks at that time when everyone is hungry.
🔻Try to avoid cooking for individual taste.
🔻Let dinner be light or no dinner or only milk.
🔻Less movements will be better to have light food & lesser vessels to wash.
🔻All family members do their stuff in living room. So that electricity is saved. And we can sweep swab rooms on alternate days to save water.

Lastly ,
LETS NOT TRUST / FORWARD / INITIATE ANY msg related to this Virus.
It might lead to horrible disasters for which we / country just cant afford to pay the cost.

Lets not compel the Govt to shut down internet services

*Lets help ourselves & so nation to eradicate this virus completely. *
All the best of efforts to everyone.

Shared in the public interest 🙏🏻🙏🏻

From tomorrow onwards there are new communication regulations.

From tomorrow onwards there are new communication regulations.

1. All calls are recorded

2. All phone call recordings saved

3. WhatsApp is monitored

4. Twitter is monitored

5. Facebook is monitored

6. All social media and forums are monitored

7. Inform those who do not know.

8. Your devices are connected to ministry systems.

9. Take care not to send unnecessary messages

10. Inform your children, Relatives and friends about this to take care

11. ​​Don’t forward any posts or videos etc., you receive regarding politics/present situation about Government/PM etc.​​

12. Police have put out a notification termed Cyber Crime and action will be taken. So just don’t delete ……

13. Writing or forwarding any message on any political and religious debate is an offence now….arrest without warrant…

14. This is very serious, please let it be known to all our groups and individual members as group admin can be in deep trouble.

15. Take care not to send unnecessary messages. Inform everyone about this to take care.

Inform your friends and others.

Please share it; it’s very much true. Groups please be careful.
By Minister of Communication and Digital Economy
Dr Enoch Okraku Gyan
🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻

Stay in home

Dear friends ,
We are in very challenging time… long pause — never ever thought of this situation will come in our materialistic life .
This pause will help us to rewind our life , family members bonding , will teach us lot of things in our life- makes us to understand that nothing is under our control & to understand the meaning of love, care, patience, strength, hope.

Certainly this is not the end of our lives.. stay positive… don’t get panic , stressed or worried, face it strong and it is just a chance to reboot our lives…

This will pass… Relax & Take care of yourself and your family and support the needy.